Steam wishlists to sales: what to expect at launch

Expect roughly 10 to 20 first-week sales for every 100 Steam wishlists you have on launch day. GameDiscoverCo data puts the median at 0.2x across surveyed games, 0.15x for games with over 25,000 wishlists and 0.10x for games priced above $10, with individual results ranging far above and below. First-year revenue has typically been around three times week one.

What is a typical Steam wishlist conversion rate?

Valve itself says there is "no formula to accurately predict sales from wishlists" in its Steamworks wishlist documentation. What exists instead is benchmark data, mostly from GameDiscoverCo, which measures first-week sales as a multiple of the wishlist balance on launch day. That ratio counts every first-week buyer, including people who never wishlisted the game.

So a reasonable central expectation is 10 to 20 first-week sales per 100 wishlists, lower for games over $10 and for games with large wishlist counts. The spread is wide: in GameDiscoverCo's survey, individual results ranged from about a tenth of the median to several times it. A forecast should always be a range.

How do you forecast your launch week from wishlists?

1. Use your net wishlist balance on launch day. That is outstanding wishlists, not total adds. Deletions and purchases during Early Access or discounts reduce it.
2. Pick a central ratio. Start at 0.10x for a game over $10, around 0.15x for most indies with 10,000 to 50,000 wishlists, and up to 0.2x for cheaper games in genres that convert well.
3. Build three scenarios. For example, 0.05x (weak reviews or a crowded week), your central ratio, and 0.3x (strong reviews and streamer pickup). These scenario ratios are planning assumptions, not published benchmarks.
4. Convert units into revenue. Multiply by your price after any launch discount, remove Steam's 30% cut, and allow for VAT and regional pricing, which lower the average amount per copy.
5. Extend to the first month and year. GameDiscoverCo's 2024 survey found median first-month revenue was 1.39x week one, first-year revenue 3.16x week one (ranging from under 2x to over 6x) and two-year revenue 4.2x.

A worked example

Say your game launches at $14.99 with a 10% launch discount ($13.49) and 30,000 wishlists.

VAT, refunds and lower regional prices reduce these figures further, and a publisher share would come out after that. The ReviewPulse launch forecast runs this calculation with regional prices built in and also estimates how many reviews to expect in week one.

What makes wishlists convert better or worse?

• Early reviews. GameDiscoverCo's 2025 analysis found under-converting games had a median Steam score of 67% (Mixed) after seven days, while the top 20 converters had 91% (Very Positive). A rough launch build loses sales immediately.
• How old the wishlists are. The same analysis found under-converters had spent an average of 411 days on Steam before launch, against 214 days for the top 20. Wishlists gathered years earlier tend to be colder.
• Price. Games above $10 converted at a lower median (0.10x), though each sale earns more.
• Launch month. GameDiscoverCo saw median conversion spike in February and August, and found December converts poorly.
• Virality. Breakout hits sell far more than their wishlists suggest because many buyers never wishlisted. In GameDiscoverCo's 2025 list of top first-week sellers, Mage Arena converted at 8.67x and R.E.P.O. at 7.51x. Do not plan around this.

What does Valve do for your wishlists at launch?

Wishlists matter because Steam acts on them. According to the Steamworks wishlist documentation:

• Everyone with your game on their wishlist gets an email and/or mobile notification when it releases, and again when it leaves Early Access.
• Steam also notifies wishlisters of discounts of at least 20% on the lowest-priced package that last more than 8 hours.
• There is a two-week cooldown between emails for the same game, which Valve may extend during busy periods.
• You can send one notification to wishlisters within two weeks of making a free demo public.
• Valve says wishlists "can be an important factor in determining where your game appears on Steam", and there is no minimum number required before Steam starts showing your game.

Plan your launch discount and first sale around these rules so you do not waste the notifications.

How many wishlists do you need before launch?

There is no official threshold. A commonly quoted marker comes from Chris Zukowski of How To Market A Game, who uses about 7,000 wishlists as roughly what a game needs to appear in Steam's Popular Upcoming list at launch (How To Market A Game). It is an observed rule of thumb rather than a Valve rule.

Work backwards from what you need to earn. If your break-even after Steam's cut is $50,000 in year one and you sell at $14.99, the worked example above implies you need roughly 10,000 to 17,000 launch wishlists (the example earns about $3 to $5 per wishlist in year one), more if your reviews are weaker or VAT and regional prices cut deeper.

How many wishlists does Steam Next Fest add?

Next Fest is the biggest single wishlist event for most indies, but it amplifies momentum you already have. Zukowski's survey of the February 2026 Next Fest (182 responses) found median wishlists gained during the festival rose with the wishlists a game already had:

His advice from the same research: go in with at least 2,000 wishlists, release your demo well before the festival rather than shadow-dropping it, give the demo its own Steam page, and use the last Next Fest before your launch. In a follow-up analysis he put the overall median at 806 wishlists for that festival.

The ReviewPulse launch checklist covers demo timing and store page readiness, and the curators and events page lists other festivals that can add wishlists before Next Fest.

How should you track wishlists before launch?

Steamworks reports wishlist activity daily, with figures current through the previous day. A few habits make the numbers more useful for forecasting:

• Track the net balance weekly. Adds minus deletions minus purchases is the number your launch forecast depends on.
• Tag every spike. Note the trailer, festival, streamer video or Reddit post behind each jump so you know what to repeat.
• Watch the deletion rate. Rising deletions after a showcase can mean the game was shown to the wrong audience.
• Compare by country. Wishlists by region tell you which languages and regional prices matter most at launch.
• Re-run the forecast monthly. Update the central ratio as your price, launch date and demo feedback become clearer.

If you know where your traffic comes from, you can also see which communities send buyers rather than browsers. ReviewPulse's find players tool ranks subreddits for a game and tracks UTM-tagged visits from posts.

What should you do if your wishlists are low?

• Delay if you can afford to. A few more months of marketing, a demo and a festival can change the outcome more than any launch-day tactic.
• Fix the store page first. Low wishlists from high traffic usually point to the capsule, trailer or first screenshots.
• Lower expectations, not quality. Launching a polished game to a small audience still builds reviews that help later sales and discounts.
• Plan for the long tail. With a median first year of about 3x week one, the launch is the start of a game's sales, not the whole of it.